Curse

Improvavel · May 07, 2011, 12:28 AM // 00:28

Guild Wars economics isn't a free market of supply and demand.

Supply always increase and demand always lower.

There is only a few exceptions like Limited edition Mini Pets.

Clearly the price of those minis keep increasing.

For example the miniature Grawl. I bought 2 a few years ago. The first cost me like 60k and the 2nd some 200k. When the zaishen keys and the zaishen betting house started to kick in those grawls were like 450-600k. These days they are 1 million or more.

Same with celestial pigs - there was few of them and they went from 100-200K at the time of their appearance to the 1 million plus range.

This show inflation - you have a fixed number of items that is much lower than the population and so the value keeps going up.

And then you can have inflation cause by a reduction of supply/increase of demand and can have deflation caused by increase of supply/decrease of demand.

For example, when the Shadow Form Plains farm was at its highest ecto price dropped to 4.5-4.8k.

Was that because there was less money in the game? No the supply simply increase so much there wasn't enough demand.

After the nerfs, ecto price went up. Then came the SC, ecto price went down. Dhuum arrived, ecto price went up.

What is the ecto future? Go down unless Anet yet again artificially intervenes to reduce drop rate.

Why are armbraces going down? We had the DwG speed clear and now we have 7 heroes, both of which increase supply and reduce demand.

The GW2 reward calculator effect - mini pets spiked due to increase demand. Now they returned to normal, and prices will keep going down.

Deflation of prices is the natural way of things - it means a society/population is richer.

But that doesn't mean GW doesn't have more money in existence today - the supply of money is always increasing.

Moonstalker · May 07, 2011, 12:49 AM // 00:49

I'm not one to sit on the economy and try to understand it. So I don't quite understand the purpose of needing gold sinks. I know that loot scaling was an attempt to lower the amount of gold going into the system, but I don't know the importance of it.
What does less gold in the system do?

Sk8tborderx · May 07, 2011, 01:28 AM // 01:28

Quote:

Originally Posted by Moonstalker

I'm not one to sit on the economy and try to understand it. So I don't quite understand the purpose of needing gold sinks. I know that loot scaling was an attempt to lower the amount of gold going into the system, but I don't know the importance of it.
What does less gold in the system do?

I suggest reading the link in post #54 of this thread for a general idea.

If you want a simplified answer, it keeps player driven prices in check.

Chthon · May 07, 2011, 03:30 AM // 03:30

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iuris

Any ideas for a gold sink that doesn't affect gameplay?

It needs to be:
-temporary in nature (otherwise we only get a new buffer sink)
-attractive enought that people will be willing to pay for it

I mean, people obviously do buy consets, because they do affect gameplay. And they use them, so new consumables would at least be sure to get bought. I'm not sure they'd go for purely cosmetic ones, at least not enough that they'd be willing to spend a lot of money on them. (don't get me wrong, I just can't think of any cosmetic ones that people would go for, I'd love for them to exist).

The best thing I can think of to fit that bill would be a daily/weekly tonic going for 5k or whatever. Just rotate through the existing forms of the zaishen tonic. Heck, I'd buy several stacks when Black Beast came up

Quote:

Originally Posted by w00t!

Probably the other force that removes money from the GW economy is the number of players that continually leave the game. As an example, I was a rich Runescape player, and when I left, I removed money from the game. Most likely permanently, as I can no longer remember my password!

This is the strongest gold sink that there is.

Ensign · May 07, 2011, 06:57 AM // 06:57

Quote:

Originally Posted by Surgo

I use a basket of ectoplasm, armbraces, alcohol, sweets, and a few other items to track inflation.

That's kinda dangerous to use as a price index; ectos have been more or less money-like for years now, and armbraces are starting to trend that way. Changes in relative prices of those two and gold is more of an exchange rate trend than an inflation trend.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Moonstalker

I'm not one to sit on the economy and try to understand it. So I don't quite understand the purpose of needing gold sinks. I know that loot scaling was an attempt to lower the amount of gold going into the system, but I don't know the importance of it.
What does less gold in the system do?

Less gold lowers the price level on the player market, which makes cash rewards from playing the game more valuable.

The caveats being:

1) Most gold sinks can be considered one-time hits to the price level; newly introduced gold sinks will cause a revaluation, gold sinks in place from the beginning help define what the base case is. Neither has any long term effects on inflation.

2) It's pretty damn hard to move the monetary base 6 years into the lifetime of a game. Changes from gold farming get washed out by the sea of cash already in game.

Ensign · May 07, 2011, 07:14 AM // 07:14

Quote:

Originally Posted by w00t!

The fact that we see consistent deflation in the GW economy proves that point that those forces that remove money from Guild Wars are stronger than the forces that add money.

It shows that people are finding things they want to spend money on faster than they're accumulating money; which really isn't terribly surprising given the HoM update.

Quote:

Originally Posted by w00t!

Probably the other force that removes money from the GW economy is the number of players that continually leave the game.

Sure, but unless there's a demographic bias on people quitting the game that shouldn't have any fundamental effect on the price level (as a first order effect; you'd <edit> have some sort of second order effect from increased market friction that isn't immediately obvious in its effect on the price level).

Quaker · May 07, 2011, 02:48 PM // 14:48

I think that, no matter what gold sinks there are, there will be players who will store up their gold anyway. Some people seem to have difficulty distinguishing between real life, where accumulating wealth and saving for later are practical, and games, where imaginary gold is meant to be spent on imaginary things, and where there's no point to saving.

w00t! · May 07, 2011, 04:20 PM // 16:20

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ensign

It shows that people are finding things they want to spend money on faster than they're accumulating money; which really isn't terribly surprising given the HoM update.

Well, you just made the point I was trying to make in the first place, and apparently didn't make very well. The fact that there is deflation negates the need for additional Gold Sinks. Now, having said that, I'm generally in favor of Gold Sinks just because they are optional, and fun.

Gold Sinks are like the Fed! Solve our economic woes through central planning!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ensign

Sure, but unless there's a demographic bias on people quitting the game that shouldn't have any fundamental effect on the price level (as a first order effect; you'd <edit> have some sort of second order effect from increased market friction that isn't immediately obvious in its effect on the price level).

I would argue that there is a bias on people quitting a game that's six years old. Games probably follow a Gamma distribution or something similar, and we're now in the long tail.

I have to add, in that I'm no Keynesian, I don't think, nor do I care, whether we can determine the root causes of all the forces shaping supply and demand. We only have to look at the results, which is that Guild Wars has and continues to experience general deflation.

Good discussion btw.

AngelWJedi · May 07, 2011, 07:10 PM // 19:10

Quote:

Originally Posted by Quaker

I think that, no matter what gold sinks there are, there will be players who will store up their gold anyway. Some people seem to have difficulty distinguishing between real life, where accumulating wealth and saving for later are practical, and games, where imaginary gold is meant to be spent on imaginary things, and where there's no point to saving.

i loved to save my money. not that i dont spend it heck far from it i spend it faster in game then in rl. but since im not a good farmer and i tend to reroll chars alot its hard to recoop money i spent. so i tend to save more then spend. and to me tomes are a money sink. since i dont see a lot of people selling them least when im in towns looking for ones i need. xD

sirblack · May 07, 2011, 07:40 PM // 19:40

Quote:

Originally Posted by Quaker

I think that, no matter what gold sinks there are, there will be players who will store up their gold anyway. Some people seem to have difficulty distinguishing between real life, where accumulating wealth and saving for later are practical, and games, where imaginary gold is meant to be spent on imaginary things, and where there's no point to saving.

There's little point to saving much money only if there's ever a fixed set of things to buy. However, in this game new items/skins/etc have been added periodically over time. A player may save up "useless" money today when there's nothing they would buy, yet find it very useful tomorrow to buy something newly added.

And of course, it doesn't just have to be "new" things. Other changes have influenced the perceived value of some things. For instance: Years ago, many players might not have considered the Party/Sweet/Drunkard titles worth spending money on. But after the HoM reward details were finally released, suddenly those titles could have become worthwhile to people who needed those additional titles for HoM points or GWAMM.

thedarkmarine · May 07, 2011, 09:26 PM // 21:26

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saldonus Darkholme

Yes, they can. That isn't the argument.

Oh, you're trying to threadjack. FAIL.

Quote:

Not to me or the OP, apparently.

You are too detached from the game if you think that.

Quote:

For you, perhaps.

And most others.

Quote:

Wrong. My argument is valid. Yours is flawed.

You present nothing for your argument. Your argument is full of holes.

mrmango · May 08, 2011, 12:53 AM // 00:53

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iuris

I guess I'm the only one with gold and no meaningful way to spend it. OK, great to be you, sucks to be me...

Obligatory post asking for money to help me want to buy HoM weapons.

I think the consensus of the thread thus far is that deflation is going to happen with time, the original calls of inflation happening seem to be quiet, for good reason.

Bright Star Shine · May 09, 2011, 08:22 AM // 08:22

Quote:

Originally Posted by Quaker

I think that, no matter what gold sinks there are, there will be players who will store up their gold anyway. Some people seem to have difficulty distinguishing between real life, where accumulating wealth and saving for later are practical, and games, where imaginary gold is meant to be spent on imaginary things, and where there's no point to saving.

Or, you have players like me -and a lot of others that I know- that accumulate money so fast that we don't have anything to spend it on. I buy OS shields the entire time, I use ~1 stack of lockpicks/week. Yet my money pile does not decrease, it keeps increasing. It's players like me and some others that can actually use a gold sink, even if it's only something cosmetic, but it's the cosmetic stuff that's so fun sometimes. Hence why nearly all of my guildies are waiting to buy a Margo and/or Kuuna tonic when the prices drop to ~250e..

Lensor · May 09, 2011, 01:20 PM // 13:20

I think the gold sinks in GW are quite fine. Gold does have value in GW, it is still used for trades and the economy in general is deflating (ie value of gold going up).

If someone has so much money they dont know what to do with it, they could always max out zaishen or something (would not sink gold per se, but redistribute their gold to someone else who in turn can sink it). What could be needed though is more item sinks, especially for the lower-end stuff, but not sure how to make that happen without some major backlash. For instance, things like inscriptions are very nice from a convenience perspective, but the ease of making an exact skin+stat combination made a lot of "perfect" items practically worthless.

cthulhu reborn · May 09, 2011, 02:32 PM // 14:32

The problem in any game is that some people are real trade RED ENGINE GORED ENGINE GORED ENGINE GORED ENGINE GORED ENGINE GOs (no offence meant) and some people are not.

For a lot of people the game isn't about trading and having tons of cash. They have a hard time even getting their characters in elite armour sets and getting 100k together and such. They could, but they don't.

Others love getting tons of cash and really rare items and such. Trading armbraces as currency etc. So two extremes in the same economy. Maybe for the really rich they should get some sort of rare mini pet trader who takes armbraces by the hundreds for very rare pets or something like that. You could even make it a gamble, for every x armbraces there's a % chance to get a mini. They already introduced very rare mini pets so that won't shock anyone.

But I am not sure if this will be good for the economy. If it's very hard to get or very expensive rather, then it may sink a lot of money from the economy. Will that increase gold seller activity? There's also that to consider.

Bright Star Shine · May 09, 2011, 03:29 PM // 15:29

Quote:

Originally Posted by cthulhu reborn

The problem in any game is that some people are real trade RED ENGINE GORED ENGINE GORED ENGINE GORED ENGINE GORED ENGINE GOs (no offence meant) and some people are not.

For a lot of people the game isn't about trading and having tons of cash. They have a hard time even getting their characters in elite armour sets and getting 100k together and such. They could, but they don't.

Others love getting tons of cash and really rare items and such. Trading armbraces as currency etc. So two extremes in the same economy. Maybe for the really rich they should get some sort of rare mini pet trader who takes armbraces by the hundreds for very rare pets or something like that. You could even make it a gamble, for every x armbraces there's a % chance to get a mini. They already introduced very rare mini pets so that won't shock anyone.

But I am not sure if this will be good for the economy. If it's very hard to get or very expensive rather, then it may sink a lot of money from the economy. Will that increase gold seller activity? There's also that to consider.

Not everyone rich person in this game got rich by powertrading, there are more than enough ways to accumulate money fast.. Also, not everyone likes minipets, I for one hate them and don't see their use.. I just got the ones I needed for my HoM and that's it.

newbie_of_doom · May 09, 2011, 04:24 PM // 16:24

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nyta

Having a weapon mod trader that works similar to the material and rune traders would be nice. They could remove money in the same way that other traders do.

I agree, a zaishen key trader would be a similar and easy solution too.

Quote:

Originally Posted by aspi

New high end high res armours would be a nice gold sink imo.

While this is true, one must not forget ArenaNet's position here. There is no general interest for them to add new high end armors that are available for only ingame gold. However, it is good to think about this for future releases. This is also another buffer gold sink. After all, once an armor is purchased, a player will not be inclined to buy a new set of the same armor.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ling

What about dedicating mini's, doesn't this effectively remove money from the game?

I buy a mini ghostly hero for 1750e, dedicate it and resell it for 1000e.. that's 750e removed (or am I missing something here? :3)

While the item in question has lost value (your ghostly hero is now worth 750 ectos less), the ectos have not been removed from currency.
In the whole process, you have bought a ghostly hero from someone for 1750 ectos. This person now has 1750 ectos, and you have -1750 ectos.

You now sell the dedicated ghostly hero for 1000 ectos, meaning that you yourself will have -750 ectos and someone else now has -1000 ectos.

1750-750-1000 = 0, meaning that no money has been removed from the game.

When money is to be removed from a game, it has to be 'given' to NPCs.

Surgo · May 09, 2011, 04:47 PM // 16:47

One thing has been removed in that example though -- an undedicated ghostly hero -- so it's not exactly zero-sum.

You know that I'm sure, and your point still stands exactly as-is, but it's worth mentioning. Said undedicated minis can be a currency in their own right.

newbie_of_doom · May 09, 2011, 06:28 PM // 18:28

Quote:

Originally Posted by Surgo

One thing has been removed in that example though -- an undedicated ghostly hero -- so it's not exactly zero-sum.

You know that I'm sure, and your point still stands exactly as-is, but it's worth mentioning. Said undedicated minis can be a currency in their own right.

Well yes, but it only makes a difference in the price for the item in question, in this case a ghostly hero. The price of the ghostly hero is based on supply and demand. By dedicating this minipet, the supply will diminish and the price will be higher. Make no mistake, no gold has been removed from the game in this process. Therefore, it has nothing to do with gold sinks. In the case of destroyer weapons or high end armor, this is different. Note that dedicating armors does not remove them from the market, for they already have been removed from market straight after purchase. The Hall of Monuments does however, increase demand on high end armors, thereby increase gold sinks.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yol

A year-long boardwalk-type place with an entrance fee would be a good gold sink. 1k to get in for an hour (or however long), giving access to solo or small team mini games (not necessarily dragon arena, costume brawl and rings, to keep these ones special) that cost xyz gold to play and reward a few gamer points or kurz/lux points or whatever (but not gold or items). This would obviously take programming time and resources, but I'd be interested in this and maybe it could be a tester for the mingames in GW2.

I missed this post earlier, but this is rather good idea. A new title could even be implented for solo mini-games.

w00t! · May 09, 2011, 06:58 PM // 18:58

Quote:

Originally Posted by newbie_of_doom

I missed this post earlier, but this is rather good idea. A new title could even be implented for solo mini-games.

Actually, just giving out Gamer Title points would work very well.